Why clean energy isn't worthy

Martin Wright — Fri, 30 Jul 2010 17:55:18 +0100

Sustainable solutions that make good business sense

In a small farm on the hills above Nairobi, a slender woman in a flower-patterned headscarf is gently, politely shattering myths. Standing among the fruit trees on her shamba (smallholding), Mary Waringa Nguku dispels two of the most common clichés trotted out about the developing world. First, that people in Africa and elsewhere are too busy worrying about day-to-day life to share the West’s obsession with forest loss or climate change. “We cannot trust the weather any more”, she tells me. “It doesn’t rain like it used to, and the rivers are drying out. We do not always have the water we need… The forests are less, so we are going short of wood and it is more expensive. That is why, when I saw the biogas at my brother’s farm, and he told me how much money he was saving, I really wanted to give it a try.”

That last remark gives the lie to the second myth: that sustainable solutions always cost more than unsustainable ones. Mary is among over 200 customers of Skylink Innovators, a local Kenyan company which is installing biogas energy plants in the nation’s schools and even two of its prisons. The plants use a mixture of cow dung and human waste to produce cooking fuel via a process of anaerobic digestion (AD). It’s a well-established technology which tackles several problems at once: it provides clean fuel in place of smoky firewood for cooking; it helps to reduce pressure on dwindling forests and cuts out the greenhouse emissions from burning wood; and it saves people money. Once the biogas plant is in place, there’s no need for firewood. Many farmers save at least as much again on chemical fertiliser, too, as the nutrient-rich residue from the digester does the job just as well. Most plants pay for themselves in a couple of years. All of which makes it a sound business prospect for the likes of Skylink’s founder, Samwel Kinoti. “My father was a pioneer of biogas on his farm, so I grew up with it. I saw the beauty of it, and I knew others would, too.”

It’s this combination of entrepreneurship and environmental good sense which has won Skylink one of the 2010 Ashden Awards for Sustainable Energy, presented by David Attenborough at a ceremony in London. The Ashden Awards celebrate local sustainable energy success stories in both developing countries and the UK. In doing so, they echo and amplify Mary Waringa’s mythbusting, turning the pursuit of sustainability from something worthy into pure common sense.

“I saw the beauty of biogas, and I knew others would, too”

The beauty of biogas is appreciated in Vietnam too – on an impressive scale. Here, Dutch development agency SNV is collaborating with the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development on a scheme to install 168,000 biogas digesters by 2012. Based on a hugely successful SNV programme in Nepal, the project works with hundreds of masons across the country, training them to become self-employed biogas engineers. Anyone who’s eaten in a Vietnamese restaurant will know that pork plays a prime part in the country’s cuisine. It’s also at the heart of its biogas success: for thousands of pig farmers across the country, a biogas digester doesn’t just mean abundant cooking fuel in place of wood, coal or LPG. It’s also the perfect solution to the age-old problem of pig muck. Instead of (literally) shovelling the shit on an almost daily basis – which is just as unpleasant a task as it sounds – they simply sluice it down a hole in the pigsty and into the digester, where, by the miracle that is AD, it’s transformed into cooking gas.

“It’s so much quicker to cook meals now”, farmer Nguyen Van Vach told me, “and you don’t get smoke in your eyes the whole time… It’s a lot less smelly indoors and out – so I’m more popular with my neighbours!” As in Kenya, multiple benefits abound. “Before, we used to have to get rid of all the slurry, so we put it in the fishpond”, Nguyen explains. “But sometimes there was too much, the water turned black and the fish died. There’s no such problem with the purified residue from the biogas. On the contrary, it actually boosts production. Now the water stays clear and we’re selling around one-third more fish.”

A modest subsidy has helped the programme take off, but increasingly the trained masons are simply selling directly to householders, who are eager to reap the benefits of biogas and unwilling to join the programme’s waiting list: proof that, with the right technology, sustainability can pay for itself. Further evidence for that comes from Delhi, where solar start-up D.light has scored dramatic successes with its simple solar lanterns – over 220,000 sold worldwide in little over two years, almost all without any subsidy. Such rapid growth from a standing start belies another common charge levelled at sustainable energy: that it will struggle to reach scale. In Nicaragua, Ashden-winner TECNOSOL has sold everything from solar home systems, water heaters and pumps to solar fridges (vital for storing vaccines in areas without mains electricity), benefiting over a quarter of a million people. And in the far south of Brazil, the CRELUZ power co-operative has harnessed local rivers to provide clean, affordable electricity to over 80,000 of its members and their families.

In Uganda, by contrast, green energy is in its infancy. But it’s poised to grow fast, thanks to the efforts of another of this year’s Ashden winners, the Rural Energy Foundation. It’s aiming to kickstart a robust commercial market for solar power across the large swathes of countryside beyond the reach of reliable mains electricity. This means training local shopkeepers as expert solar vendors, helping them access and, in some cases, offer credit, and generally raising awareness of solar’s potential. As well as using familiar techniques like radio and newspaper ads, REF staff also adopt a more direct approach: standing on a corner in a busy marketplace with a portable power system, demonstrating solar’s potential to light a lamp, recharge a mobile – or even power a haircut or a shave.

In a ‘developed’ country such as the UK, of course, an electric shave is hardly novel. But as concerns over energy security and a looming ‘generation gap’ kick in, so the search for home-grown power is taking on a new urgency. It’s a quest taken to heart by the fiercely independent islanders on Eigg, off the west coast of Scotland. Having bought out a feudal landowner back in 1997, they’ve taken steps to green every aspect of island life – culminating in the installation of their own renewable grid. Powered by a 100kW hydro turbine, a small wind farm and a solar PV array, it meets 90% of the island’s electricity needs. Home-grown energy is a winning theme in Suffolk, too, where the council is helping local schools switch from oil- to wood-fired boilers – with fuel sourced from the county’s own woodlands. It’s knocked a quarter off the schools’ heating budgets – and cut their carbon emissions by 90%. Two other schools – Okehampton College in Devon and St Columb Minor in Cornwall – won Ashden Awards for making dramatic savings in energy use and carbon emissions while inspiring the wider community to take action, too. Meanwhile, over in Northern Ireland, a local family plumbing and heating business, Willis Energy Systems, has been rewarded for its ‘Solasyphon’: a device which allows householders to retrofit a solar water heater, without going to the hassle and expense of installing a big new water tank.

Saving money as well as carbon is key to the success of Northwards Housing, which has given ‘whole house’ energy efficiency makeovers to 70% of north Manchester’s housing stock. “The house used to be an absolute nightmare, it was so cold”, recalls tenant Susan Savill. ”I even considered renting privately, but I’m glad I didn’t now, as it’s so good. Now we can just have the heating on for a couple of hours instead of all day long.” And, echoing Mary Waringa, she adds: “It’s definitely reduced the bills.” Martin Wright is Editor in Chief, Green Futures.

The Ashden Awards for Sustainable Energy
is a Forum for the Future partner.

East Asia's first LEED house unveiled

Thu, 29 Jul 2010 15:29:13 +0100

South Korean show home could spur efficient housing trend

A show home in South Korea has become the first in East Asia to win the US Green Building Council’s prestigious LEED (Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design) platinum status.

Touted as ‘zero energy’, the 423 square metre Samsung Green Tomorrow house, designed by Samoo Architects with support from consultancy Arup, includes features such as high-efficiency lighting and a treatment plant for grey and black water recycling. Energy needs are met by a combination of 176 rooftop photovoltaic panels, generating 21MWh, and groundsource heat pumps.

But applause for the development doesn’t flow in from all quarters. Jonathan Hines of Architype, which has pioneered the energy efficient Passivhaus concept, is concerned that award schemes such as LEED could fuel a ‘tick box mentality’, whereby developers profit from one-off, costly, and ultimately unscalable, publicity stunts. According to Hines, the micro-generation systems of “buildings that are effectively zero carbon islands... are too small to be efficient or financially viable on a commercial scale”.

Green Tomorrow was no exception, with building costs double those of a standard three-bedroom house. But Samsung intends to address this gap, commercialising the design by 2013.

The pilot development could prove no more than a drop in the ocean for South Korea, where a government-backed programme to create a million green homes by 2020 aims to stimulate clean technologies (see 'New law orders green growth'). – Sam Jones

Are vertical farms the future of urban food?

Wed, 28 Jul 2010 17:05:10 +0100

With more mouths to feed and increasing demands on land, will high rise city blocks be the source of tomorrow's supper? Duncan Graham-Rowe scans the skies.

The vaults rose up as high as the city walls, bearing reeds richly bedded in bitumen and gypsum. The layered galleries peered each beyond its neighbour to reach the sunlight, and water drawn from the river was pumped through conduits up to the highest level. The topsoil was thick enough to root even the largest trees...

These were the renowned Hanging Gardens of Babylon, as described by the Greek historians Diodorus and Callisthenes, and the earliest example of vertical farming – at least according to Dan Caiger-Smith. His company, Valcent, is taking the concept into the 21st century, recently launching the first farm of its kind at Paignton Zoo in Devon.

It’s a beguilingly simple idea: make maximum use of a small amount of space by filling glass houses with plant beds stacked high one above the other.

Financial and environmental pressures on modern agriculture have sparked new interest in vertical farming. With global population expected to exceed 9 billion by 2050, competition for land to grow both food and energy crops will become increasingly fierce. Four-fifths of us will live in dense urban areas, and increasing awareness of the carbon and water footprints of well-travelled food will have pushed locally grown produce even further up the list of desirables.

So it’s easy to see the appeal of a system which, its proponents insist, can surpass the productivity of existing agricultural spaces by up to 20 times, while using less water, cutting mileage and energy costs, and delivering food security.

“It answers so many of the big questions of the future”, says Caiger-Smith.

Valcent’s system requires about the same amount of energy as having a home computer on for ten hours a day. That’s enough to produce half a million lettuces a year – and, the company claims, seven times less than is required to grow the same crop on a traditional farm.

The 100 square metre farm at Paignton Zoo grows leaf vegetables for animal feed. It applies a technique called hydroponics, where plants are grown in nutrient rich solutions instead of soil. Stacked in trays eight layers high, the crops are continually rotated to ensure that all have adequate access to air and sunlight. The system also allows nutrients that have not been directly taken up by the plants to be collected and recirculated, along with the water, reducing usage and minimising waste.

This is just the beginning, says Caiger-Smith. His company now has more than 150 clients around the world queuing up to see how hydroponics could meet the needs of human food production, too.

How indeed. Inspiring concepts and artists’ impressions abound, but with none actually up and running yet, how can vertical farms meet the impressive efficiency and production claims being made for them?

By cutting lots of corners. For a start, they remove the need for tractors and other fuel-dependent equipment. Distances to ship the produce from grower to retailer to consumer are also slashed. As Jeanette Longfield, Co-ordinator of the food and farming non-profit group, Sustain, puts it: “Intensive agriculture is currently entirely dependent on fossil fuels, from its use of nitrogen-based fertilisers to mechanical equipment, transport and refrigeration – and so urban agriculture really makes a lot of sense”. In particular, Longfield sees “great potential for perishables that don’t travel well”.

Moreover, the traditional dependence of yield on the weather is taken out of the equation, offering greater security to the full supply chain.

Proven business models are still a way off. “It takes a stock market to build a high-rise,” says Natalie Jeremijenko, an aerospace engineer and environmental health professor at New York University. She doubts that the income from vertically farmed crops would be sufficient to recoup the rent. But this hasn’t stemmed her interest. Instead, she’s come up with two designs to sidestep the problem: one is a small hydroponic rooftop pod with a curved shape to maximise exposure to the sunlight. The other is a vertical farm designed around a fire escape on an occupied high rise.

Sustain has also set out to demonstrate that urban land doesn’t always come at a premium. The organisation has launched the programme Capital Growth, which aims to create 2,012 new food growing spaces in London before the city hosts the Olympics that year. The search encompasses “all kinds of nooks and crannies” – from school grounds and the banks of canals to roof terraces.

The other option is to simply do things on an industrial scale. Dickson Despommier at Columbia University, author of The Vertical Farm: The World Grows Up, believes there is scope to take vertical farming to an entirely new level, quite literally. He wants to create a new type of skyscraper to pierce the Big Apple’s skyline – vast multi-storey buildings dedicated to vertical farming. According to Despommier, a single 30-storey building could provide enough food for 10,000 people.

And he’s not alone in thinking big. Belgian architect Vincent Callebaut has drawn up plans for a huge tower, also in New York, on the city’s Roosevelt Island (see 'Weak signals: how to track a changing horzion'). Callebaut’s vision, dubbed the Dragonfly, is to create buildings with lush, fertile interiors that function as self-contained, sustainable eco-systems, producing food for their residents.

It’s not just a flight of fancy. Will Allen in Milwaukee has already demonstrated the concept with a community food aquaculture system he calls Growing Power. This symbiotic cultivation system relies on aquatic life, such as tilapia fish and yellow perch, to redistribute nutrients. Waste products from the fish fertilise plants, while vegetable waste and worms from the gardens feed the fish. Both the vegetables and the fish are sold to local businesses at a marked up price, so that local residents can buy the produce directly from the farm at a subsidised price.

If vertical food does prove cheaper to produce and consume, then it’s unlikely to face much opposition. In years to come, “locally grown” may mean just a few blocks from home.

Duncan Graham-Rowe is a former staff writer for the New Scientist and a regular contributor to The Economist and The Guardian.

Additional material by Anna Simpson, Deputy Editor, Green Futures.

Soil sequestration hotspots mapped

Tue, 27 Jul 2010 12:20:23 +0100

Research project to identify the best UK locations for biomass crops

When and where is it really smart to use farmland for energy crops? A research team has set out to improve our knowledge of how to do the carbon calculations. And a big part of the answer, it says, lies in the soil.

A University of Southampton team is comparing different ways of producing biomass for fuel, such as growing grasses and short rotation coppiced woodland, to yield a new kind of ‘carbon opportunity map’. The aim is to identify the best locations for biomass crops in the UK, in terms of the CO2 they would lock away.

The research involves detailed analysis of the plants’ photosynthesis, root structure, and interaction with micro-organisms in the ground – asking how these variables affect the capacity of the surrounding soil to capture and store carbon.

Estimates suggest that there are over a trillion tonnes of carbon stored in soil worldwide – significantly more than the total amount in the atmosphere, and perhaps twice as much as in all living vegetation. Some of this storage is quite short-term, but most of the carbon sequestered as organic matter in soil hummus is held for hundreds or even thousands of years.

Agricultural practices such as biochar (see 'Burn trees to save the world?'), which improve this soil sequestration, can make a real difference to the global carbon balance.

If you take all aspects of the equation into account, says team leader Gail Taylor, the research already suggests that bioenergy crops could potentially reduce carbon emissions by several million tonnes in the UK alone over the next decade.
–Roger East

An answer to the hydrogen storage conundrum?

Tue, 27 Jul 2010 12:02:22 +0100

French company stores hydrogen in chemical form

With energy density three times that of petrol, it’s easy to understand why clean-burning hydrogen is often pegged as the green fuel of the future. And as a means of transport and storage for energy, it offers an attractive solution to the intermittent nature of renewables such as wind (see 'Intermittency "no obstacle to wind power success"').

So far, so good. But storing hydrogen is no easy matter. In liquid form, it has to be held in pressurised containers at temperatures of -252°C, at great expense. Moreover, its incredibly low density means that, to get the same kind of mileage out of liquid hydrogen, a car would need a fuel tank four times the standard size.

Now, a company in France claims to have developed a way to store it chemically, in the form of metal hydrides. Lyon-based McPhy Energy has found that chemically reacting hydrogen with a magnesium-based substance allows it to be stored more densely than in liquid form. And the beauty of this reaction, according to CEO Pascal Mauberger, is that it is completely reversible.

The company has teamed up with the French Laboratory of Innovation for New Energy Technologies and Nanomaterials to test two prototype storage tanks, designed to hold 40% more hydrogen than in liquid form, under industrial conditions.

There are concerns over the relative efficacy of storing hydrogen in chemical form, as opposed to liquid. According to Xiao Guo, a hydrogen storage expert at University College London, the conversion process – a relatively simple reaction involving electrolysis – remains “inefficient”.

But McPhy Energy insists that there are significant cost and maintenance savings compared with existing gas storage solutions. Their first tank will be capable of storing just 1kg of hydrogen, but if it proves successful, the company plans to test a 15kg unit later this year. – Duncan Graham-Rowe

Now is the time to invest in a green economy, says Caroline Lucas

Anna Simpson — Sat, 24 Jul 2010 12:53:51 +0100

“We must not miss this window of opportunity”: the UK’s first Green MP calls for leadership to drive a low carbon economy

As Forum for the Future celebrates the graduation of its Masters in Leadership for Sustainable Development, Green Party Leader and MP Caroline Lucas tells Anna Simpson why the next five years are essential if we are to move towards a more sustainable way of life, and calls for leaders in business and government to show real courage and commitment.

Green Futures magazine interview Caroline Lucas from Alex Johnson on Vimeo.

Kinetic energy converters step up

Thu, 22 Jul 2010 10:54:02 +0100

New funding for piezoelectronics to give more sparks for your stride

Whether it’s clubbers on the dancefloor, soldiers on the go, or just lonely long-distance runners, energy harvested from toiling muscles is a hot topic. Until recently, prototypes have relied on high-impact movements to generate any current to speak of. But the race is on to harness power from the slightest swish of a skirt, twist of a wristwatch or shrug of a shoulder.

The US National Science Foundation has offered a $350,000 grant to researchers at the University of California-Berkeley, who are developing microscopic piezoelectric fibres that could be woven into any garment. The research team claims that a million fibres spun into a shirt would generate enough current to power an iPod. So far the team, led by Professor Liwei Lin, has succeeded in converting energy from small finger movements using fibres attached to a glove. The Pentagon is also backing the project, in the hope that it will put an end to heavy battery packs for soldiers.

The technical term for the conversion process is piezoelectricity – from the Greek piezo, meaning ‘to squeeze’. Mechanical stress is applied to a material, which generates an electric field in response. Maintaining the current depends on a continuous movement to and fro, like the swing of a foot.

Microfibres aren’t the only application for the science. Researchers at Princeton and the California Institute of Technology have embedded tiny chips into silicone sheets that, they claim, could be surgically implanted in the body, harnessing movements as slight as the rise and fall of the lungs (see 'Piezoelectrics to harness power from breath'). – Julian Rollins

Coming soon...

A supple, six gram power generator created by an engineer at the Louisiana Tech University that can be fitted into the heel of a trainer, offering added shock absorption while converting the runner’s energy into voltage for direct use or storage in batteries. Developer Ville Kaajakari claims that the generator is capable of producing up to 10 milliwatts – comparable to the laser of a DVD player – and costs less than a dollar to manufacture.
Authorities in the French city of Toulouse are trialling kinetic energy pads set into pavements to power street lights. They use modules first developed by Dutch company Sustainable Dance Club, which converts the thud of clubbers’ dancing feet into electricity (see 'Street surfaces to harness kinetic energy').

Ireland's 3 billion euro bid for energy independence

Wed, 21 Jul 2010 11:51:39 +0100

Coastal wind and hydro key to plans for a low-carbon, secure supply

Ireland could become energy independent if it adopts a plan to create a series of pumped hydro storage stations along its western coast.

That’s the claim of the team behind Natural Hydro Energy (NHE), which proposes to flood and dam coastal valleys from Donegal to Kerry, creating reservoirs to provide hydroelectric power as a back up to wind energy. The idea is simple: when the wind is blowing, some of the energy is used to pump water up to a dammed valley; when the wind drops, the water is released back down into the sea inlet through turbines, which generate electricity.

The €3.45 billion project will comprise a 2GW peak power plant, including 18 onshore wind farms, a hydro station and a grid transmission connection. NHE claims that there is strong investor interest and that “detailed financial models show a strongly profitable entity capable of producing carbon-free, price-stable and secure electricity of strategic importance”.

The project also comes with the blessing of the country’s chief scientific officer, Peter Cunningham. But others are not so sure. “You would normally fill a reservoir of the size mentioned by gravity using water supplies”, says Bill Finlinson, Associate Director of environmental consultancy Entec UK. “Energy costs to fill it would exceed the output generated if all the water had to be pumped up. This raises question marks over its viability.”

But NHE’s Chief Executive Officer, Graham O’Donnell, dismissed the qualms. “We have more than sufficient energy, especially when there is surplus wind. The storage capacity is 90GWh” – enough, he claims, to keep the turbines spinning for four days non-stop.

Over the next 15 months, NHE’s environmental team will undertake detailed further hydrological and geological studies on potential reservoir locations.
– Flemmich Webb

Can the South become climate-resilient?

Martin Wright — Tue, 20 Jul 2010 11:16:14 +0100

Martin Wright asks whether low-income countries are on a fast track to low-carbon prosperity.

The tropical sun is beating down. The wind is picking up. Yet the co-op farmers and their VIP visitor from the National Treasury are wreathed in smiles. Of course, their spirit of wellbeing owes something to the creature comforts of this airy, ultra-modern building, and to the friendly shade and shelter of the tree belt that surrounds it. But the real story is there for all to see on the LED wall in the atrium.

The huge i-screen switches from a live collage of the smallholder co-op members scattered all across what was once southern Mali, to display a series of animated graphs. Not everyone grasps all the details, but it’s still impressive to see the combined total for all the juice those hybrid minigrids are pumping out. And the relentless upward trend of the carbon price tracker is a special source of satisfaction to the Treasurer. She can’t resist a glance through the porch to those thousand shimmering mirrors, just glimpsed beyond the trees. So much for those who doubted her enthusiasm for putting all her yuan in one basket: concentrated solar power (CSP) has repaid her faith tenfold.

Now her position in the regional cabinet of the Federation des Trois Fleuves – or ‘SNV’ (as the media call the new powerbloc named after the Senegal, Niger and Volta rivers) – is pretty much secure. After all, it’s down to her that the Prime Minister can strut his stuff as President of OSEC – the Organisation of Solar Exporting Countries. She allows herself a modest tweet…

This, of course, is a fast-forward vision, and the future is another country: they’ll do things differently there. And you’d be forgiven for thinking it’s way too fanciful. The idea that Africa could somehow leap to a boom economy will strike some as hopelessly wishful thinking. But the seeds of this possible future already exist.

The combination of solar power, mobile phones and IT, for example, is already transforming the economic prospects for villagers across the continent. A simple piece of software enabling the transfer of small amounts of money instantly and cheaply by mobile is plugging remote rural backwaters into the global economy as never before. Millions are saving money, time and their health by switching to clean, efficient sources of energy – from solar to biogas, biomass to hydro. Agricultural innovations, too, are mushrooming, from water harvesting and hydroponics to the precise application of fertiliser and irrigation via GPS.

All such breakthroughs have one common characteristic: they are low-carbon technologies. The phrase has a rather worthy feel – especially when applied to developing countries. But it masks an intriguing possibility: that low-income nations could outflank the industrialised world, skipping the heavyweight, fossil fuel-dependent economic model and leapfrogging into a carbon-light future.

Nothing epitomises that potential better than the mobile phone revolution. “In India in the 1990s”, observes Dhananjayan Sriskandarajah, Director of the Royal Commonwealth Society, “it took four years to get a landline. In come the private phone companies, and now the poorest Indians use mobiles to their fullest advantage – not just calls, but cash transactions and new business models. Rural India has genuinely leapfrogged the world in optimising the benefits of this technology.”

As surprising as the extent and speed of the shift is the way it’s been delivered. Once upon a time, late last century, a massive infrastructural achievement like this could only have been conceived as a huge aid project – and one that would probably never have got off the drawing board. If the World Bank had been asked to fund a functioning telephone network for every Bangladeshi back in the 80s, its bean-counters would have thrown up their hands in horror. Instead, it’s happened virtually without any subsidy, delivered by private companies at a profit to people near the very bottom of the pyramid. It’s been repeated right across the developing world – and it’s only just beginning: as IT migrates to mobiles, expect a surge of apps specially designed for Indian farmers, say, or African school kids.

It couldn’t have happened without a parallel surge in solar. Still seen as an expensive luxury in the rich world, it has spread rapidly among off-grid communities in developing countries; sometimes subsidised, increasingly not. A typical solar home system, providing lights, mobile charging and power for TVs, radios and DVDs, costs around $500. Not cheap, but thanks to the widespread availability of micro-credit, increasingly affordable. The benefits in terms of education, health and income-generation are nothing short of revolutionary. Millions of solar installations have been sold over the last decade; the market is growing exponentially, and specialist companies like India’s SELCO, and the Indian-American D.light, are becoming serious players.

The biggest solar surge, though, could come courtesy of CSP, with its potential to turn the Sahara from wasteland to powerhouse, meeting a large chunk of European as well as local needs, and greening the Sahel via desalination (see 'Can the Sahara light up Europe?'). Meanwhile, technical innovations across the solar sector promise to bring the price down and the efficiency up, leading Adair Turner, Chair of the UK Committee on Climate Change, to conclude that “a very rapid deployment of solar energy” is a distinct possibility.

The real excitement is the way technologies such as these can combine to create a new economy. Mike Harrison of the UK Department for International Development (DFID) in Kenya sees signs of this happening already: “There’s a huge number of individual initiatives, and we will continue to see lots of these being successful. Microgeneration, mobiles, IT breakthroughs, water harvesting, community jatropha plantations…could these spark some kind of momentum and change the game completely?”

It’s a question explored in a major new study by Forum for the Future, funded by DFID. The future climate for development: scenarios for low-income countries in a climate-changing world sets out a range of possible scenarios for the coming decades. They are not all exactly rosy – one scenario foresees a world in which oil shortages play havoc with the global economy. But they share a common conclusion: that the days of high-carbon prosperity are over. As lead author Jemima Jewell says: “Low-income countries cannot and should not have to make a false choice between addressing climate change and development. The report clearly demonstrates how the two are fundamentally, inextricably linked, with future scenarios to provide a practical means of exploring how low-income countries can best capitalise on the synergies.”

Climate finance should, of course, help speed the roll out of low-carbon technologies – although whether existing institutional models such as the much-criticised Clean Development Mechanism can achieve much here remains to be seen (see 'Carbon markets: time to clean up'). But geopolitical shifts will play their part, too.

“The Chinese are not setting out to do good. They’re setting out to do business. It’s actually much less demeaning”

These are the twilight days of easy petroleum and cheap coal: irrespective of any carbon tax, oil and gas prices are set to continue their unsteady rise. Coal remains a relatively cheap option, but as carbon capture becomes mandatory, it too will be less competitive. Countries rich in alternative energy sources – notably solar – will start to wield more clout. Shifts in inward investment models could accelerate the trend. Nothing epitomises this more than Africa, where Chinese ‘soft power’ – wielded via the mighty yuan – is starting to replace Western-style aid diplomacy. This far from altruistic intervention is often seen as nothing more than asset-stripping on a grand scale. But it’s also opening up the prospect of a new kind of development which could give Africa renewed self-confidence. As Arnold Ekpe, of Lome-based Ecobank, remarks: “The Chinese are not setting out to do good. They’re setting out to do business. It’s actually much less demeaning.” And Chinese energy and IT companies are increasingly interested in major solar investments…

So how might a low-carbon future for low-income countries take shape? In energy, expect networks of smart micro- and mini-grids, using everything from solar and wind to mini-hydro and biomass. These could prove a far more effective way of delivering electricity to rural and even urban areas than attempting to roll out an inefficient, centralised system which in many countries is already stretched to breaking point. It’s a possibility explored in The future climate for development, and one which is already taking shape, as governments begin to recognise the potential. Nepal is planning mini-grids for its remote mountain valleys; China is rolling them out in sparsely populated western provinces; and the Indian Government has finally unveiled its much vaunted ‘Solar Mission’, with a target of installing a hefty 20GW of solar by 2022 – and bringing its price down to a par with coal generation.

Already ICT companies, such as Cisco, IBM and Google are looking at the opportunities, bringing their network management expertise to bear. The clean slate of many low-income countries in this area may allow more creativity than the fixed infrastructure of high-income countries – possibly leading to successful models ‘transferring back’ to wealthier nations.

Cities which have yet to collapse in gridlock or spend billions on old-style metro schemes, says Chris West of the Shell Foundation, could leapfrog to next generation urban transport systems, like bus rapid transit (BRT) of the sort pioneered in Curitiba (see, 'Exclusive interview with the man behind Curitiba's master plan'). He sees a future for “small, efficient bus fleets, structured like an underground but running on the surface… Undergrounds are so expensive, no city ever recovers the cost”, he says. By contrast, land values around BRT networks go up, and so rising rents swell the city coffers. Adair Turner sounds a cautionary note: “Status fascination remains a problem… High-income people in London will use the tube. High-income people in Nairobi will not use the bus. We will not have emerging economy middle classes immediately jump to the attitudes of the green middle class in high-income countries.”

So there may be more potential in electric taxis, already proving a success on the narrow streets of Kathmandu. And further down the line, electric car clubs, too: most journeys in third world cities are well under 50 miles – ideal for electric vehicles, recharged by a web of solar stations which can double as ‘energy balancers’ for the notoriously unstable urban electricity networks.

There’s leapfrog potential for the farmers of the third world, too. A combination of new technology, more resilient local business models and improved farming techniques could revolutionise agriculture across Africa and Asia. The traditional agribusiness route of investment in monoculture on a large scale, with all the implications for mechanisation and high fuel and other input costs, is already being challenged by breakthroughs in intensive organic or semi-organic production. It’s particularly so for commodities such as cocoa, coffee and tea, as well as spices and medicinal plants. with networks of smallholder farmers offering a more resilient model in the face of climatic and market fluctuations.

Christof Walter, a sustainable agriculture expert at Unilever, points out that, at present, “the food industry tends to source from just the 0.5% of the world’s farmers who work more than 100 hectares. The greatest potential for productivity increases is with smallholders in low-income countries. However, it is often expensive and complicated for the food industry to buy from smallholders. So the question is: can we efficiently scale up models of smallholder-based buying that have proven to work?”

The not-so-distant future could see smallholder cooperatives, supported by microfinance loans and investment from global private finance, becoming the dominant agricultural model. Armed with iPhone-style handhelds, farmers would use sophisticated GPS field software, complete with pinpointed local weather forecasts, to plan cropping patterns, irrigation and inputs with a precision unimaginable a generation ago – so minimising costs and maximising yields. Expert advice via facetime video will be just a call away, and ‘crowd-sourced wisdom’ – drawing on the experience of millions of other farmers – will be, too. Concerns over ‘peak phosphorous’, rising input costs and water scarcity would drive research into highly efficient mixed organic systems, resilient to drought or pest attack. Many farmers would be members of global sourcing networks organised using collaborative software to dynamically match supply and demand. Tomorrow’s multinational food companies will be able to plug into these networks to mutual benefit.

As the ‘leapfrogs’ multiply, so developing countries will start to be attractive places to do business. Some companies could relocate their HQs there, drawn by cheap, low-carbon electricity and a vibrant workforce. Western countries could find themselves scrambling to keep up, says Camilla Toulmin, Director of the International Institute for Environment and Development. Unless we meet tough carbon reduction targets, she argues, we will be increasingly left out of the new economy. She cites a cautionary tale from the last century: “The US auto industry fought tooth and nail against government regulation on emissions. The net result was a complete inability to compete with the Japanese and Europeans for the 21st century car market. It shows how it’s a real mistake for government to listen to industry lobbies too much!”

Some even see the post-colonial structure of nation states, especially in Africa, begin to lose relevance and authority to more ‘intuitive’ geographic and economic entities – such as major cities, or vital water catchment areas. There’s been much talk of impending ‘water wars’, fuelled by the latest tensions over the Nile headwaters. But as a new study from the Stockholm International Water Institute points out, this “ignores massive amounts of recent research which shows that water-scarce states that share a water body tend to find cooperative solutions rather than enter into violent conflict”. States will go to war over oil, but make peace over water.

It’s easy, of course, to get carried away on a rush of optimism. Toulmin sounds a note of caution. “[The low carbon transition] is not going to happen by itself… you need a mixture of measures, some economic such as subsidies, some institutional – like establishing and safeguarding land rights. And you need a proper price for carbon.” Other experts emphasise the need for vast improvements in fiscal and regulatory control, and in governance – with trust and transparency still lacking.

But virtually all agree that a simple functioning carbon market would be the single most effective intervention. “The minute you charge a proper price for carbon”, says Alan Winters, Chief Economist at DFID, “many other sorts of decisions – on food miles, on energy sources, and so on – become perfectly obvious. So many policies would be simpler if we could have a basic global carbon tax, involving every significant player. Yes, it’s politically difficult, but [it] is also the easiest solution in the long run.”

“There are lots of practical reasons why fast tracking low-carbon development is difficult”, says Jewell, “but none of these are insurmountable.” James Goodman, Forum’s Head of Futures, agrees: “One thing we’ve learnt from this work is that the barriers to low-carbon development are the same as the barriers to development in general, namely: institutional inertia, power inertia, lack of available funds and corruption. In one sense that’s depressing – but at least we don’t have to reinvent development because of climate change! It makes problems more acute, but it should also help focus attention, and add urgency.”

“Low-income countries could have a tremendous competitive advantage. So this is not just about mitigating climate change: it’s about opportunity”

For Jewell, “the biggest obstacle is one of perception. The low-carbon route is still sometimes seen – especially in the countries concerned – as a second class option; a sort of neo-colonialism on the part of the rich world, as if it were saying ‘Right, we’ve pulled the ladder up after us. Now you’re just left with this…’. That not only stymies the potential of low carbon development: it’s also plain wrong. After all, the so-called developed world is not exactly having it easy: it’s locked into a fossil-fuelled economy and facing an energy crunch! By contrast, a low-carbon economy is positive in so many ways that this perception fundamentally has to change. [Because] whether we like it or not, whether it’s fair or not, we are going to move to a low-carbon economy across the globe. That is what is going to happen. And low-income countries can leapfrog precisely because they haven’t got locked into a high-carbon model. That gives them a tremendous competitive advantage. So this is not just about mitigating climate change: it’s about opportunity.”

India’s solar entrepreneur Harish Hande of SELCO agrees: “Too often things are framed in terms of fear – of worrying about global warming – or of blaming someone else for it. And that can just paralyse people. Governments can get stuck in the past, too – trying to solve new problems with old thinking. There are 500 million people in India today with no access to energy. Now, when the Indian Government thinks of energy, it usually thinks about mega-scale projects – about coal, nuclear and so on. And those just feed into all the inefficiencies of the existing, centralised grid.”

Instead, argues Hande, the Government should think: “‘What are the best interventions we can make to meet the needs of those 100 million households?’ And once you start looking at that, everything changes. A lot of people’s basic needs – like cooking, lighting, education, ways of earning income – can best be met with a combination of low-carbon interventions – solar, biomass, biogas, micro-hydro, and so on. These are site specific, highly efficient ways of meeting those needs; they’re not dependent on help from outside. So there’s a huge potential for developing countries to grab this with both hands, rather than just complain about the rich world.”

Perhaps the most crucial shift of all, then, is not one of technology, politics or money, but of attitude. It’s early days, but from India to Africa to Latin America, there are signs of a break from the post-war consensus that development necessarily involves ‘catching up’ with the industrialised West. Catching up, that is, through a distinctly 20th century mix of fossil fuels, heavy industry, intensive chemical-fuelled agriculture and mass urbanisation. “We might just be looking at a ‘values leapfrog’”, says Jewell, “where because low carbon living carries so many benefits in its wake, people see it not just as a necessity, but as an aspiration”.

Such a leap could give a whole new slant on that hackneyed term, ‘development’. In years to come, perhaps, ‘developing country’ will mean just that: unfolding and evolving, rather than striving to emulate the fossilised model of the 20th century West.

Martin Wright is Editor in Chief of Green Futures. Additional material by Roger East.

Read the report and watch animations of the scenarios at: www.forumforthefuture.org/projects/the-future-climate-for-development

Can the Rest save the West?

A competition for altruistic design sends creative juices upstream.

From solar fridges and clean cook stoves to mobile applications for remote banking, a multitude of ‘altruistic’ designs from the West is winging its way to off-grid communities in low-income countries.

Now Carolina Vallejo, a Colombian designer, thinks it’s time that altruistic design started to flow the other way. Inspiration came in the form of an assignment during her studies at New York University’s Interactive Telecommunications Program. “We were given a one-week deadline to develop a socially responsible design for developing countries. I was fed up with this paternalistic approach, so I decided to reverse the equation.”

The result was ‘Design for the First World’ (Dx1W), a competition asking ‘the other 90%’ to come up with solutions to the problems faced by high-income communities. In spite – or even because – of near limitless access to water, energy and food, says Vallejo, so-called ‘developed’ countries clearly have plenty of problems to solve. Meanwhile, she argues, there’s no shortage of creative minds in low-income nations, where tight resources and finances spur innovation on a daily basis. Necessity, in that context, really is the mother of invention.

Straplined ‘the Rest saving the West’, Dx1W challenges any citizen of a developing country aged 13 or older to submit up to five designs addressing chronic ‘first world’ concerns. The solutions must respond to one of four key areas: obesity, ageing populations, the mass production and over consumption of goods, and the integration of immigrants.

The competition has sparked interest across the world, from established institutions such as the BBC and MIT, to up-and-coming blogs dedicated to design, peace and aid. Prize money is small – $1,000, raised through a social media campaign – but profile seems guaranteed.

“I think we – the developing world – have grown accustomed to the top helping the bottom,” says Vallejo. “We don’t even think it can work both ways. There is a need to re-educate ourselves and gain agency.”

Jury member Arvind Lodaya, from Bangalore’s Srishti School of Art, Design and Technology, agrees: “We have a plethora of western NGOs working to help our people.

We need a similar plethora of non-western NGOs working to help theirs.” – Anna Simpson

Diving robot runs on renewables

Mon, 19 Jul 2010 14:57:48 +0100

NASA harnesses the ocean's temperature differentials to power a robotic buoy

A robotic buoy developed by NASA dives hundreds of metres beneath the surface of the Pacific, taking readings on ocean currents and salinity. Nothing unusual about that, perhaps, except the source of its power: the very seawater it passes through.

Welcome to the world of Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) – something of a sleeper technology. It uses the same heat-exchange principles applied to fridges and air conditioners, taking advantage of the difference in temperature between the chilly depths of the oceans and the warmer upper regions. Back in the 1970s, the all-powerful US technology corporation Lockheed Martin developed a small OTEC plant that produced 50kW of electricity over three months.

“Then along came Ronald Reagan and killed off renewable energy activities”, says Richard Meyer, President of the Florida-based Ocean Energy Council.

NASA is touting its new invention, the SOLO-TREC diving robot, as the world’s first unmanned underwater vehicle running solely on renewable energy. Key to the design are tubes filled with oil and surrounded by wax. The warm surface water liquefies the wax, which expands, thus forcing the oil into a high-pressure compartment. A battery-charging generator is then driven by releasing this oil. As the buoy dives into colder water, the wax solidifies once more.

When it comes to establishing more widespread applications of OTEC, says Meyer, the difficulty is scale. A power plant would need to pump a lot of cold water up from the depths to create the thermal differential required – an energy intensive process which, according to the Ocean Energy Council, could swallow up to 40% of the power generated.

But since 2008, the US Department of Energy has handed Lockheed Martin grants totalling over $2 million for collaborative work with universities and other companies to commercialise the technology. A pilot power plant with a budget of $200-250 million is currently in the design stage. – Dixe Wills

A way forward for rooftop micro-wind?

Mon, 19 Jul 2010 14:42:56 +0100

Bladeless wind turbine saves wildlife and costs

Critics of wildlife-unfriendly wind turbines have quietened down since the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds installed one on its flagship visitor centre and applauded the 175-piece London Array (see 'Bird spotters convert to wind power'). Now, a new technical development could just silence them altogether.

Solar Aero Research, New Hampshire, has patented a bladeless wind turbine with a mesh-covered air inlet, which poses no danger to bats and birds. Nor will it disrupt radar used by air traffic controllers and the military.

The Fuller Wind Turbine, developed over four years with £215,000 of private investment, harnesses the viscosity of air passing over the rims of thin discs to generate energy. Designed with urban rooftops in mind, the entire housing swivels almost silently as it tracks the wind – the only visible motion.

“This enclosed turbine should produce significant power at half the life-cycle cost of the windmills,” says Howard Fuller, its inventor. The savings are due to the elimination of up-tower maintenance – to rebalance the blades of conventional wind turbines, for example.

A proof of concept model exists and a prototype is expected to generate 10kW, with production units ranging from 5 to 100kW. An insignificant amount, perhaps, compared to a 3MW windmill, but – argues Fuller – power generation can be scaled up by grouping arrays more densely, with blade clearance no longer a concern.

Nick Medic of Renewable UK (formerly the British Wind Energy Association) welcomed the innovation: “The fact that people are coming up with such a variety of solutions testifies to the vibrancy and viability of the wind energy market, and shows that there is a lot of potential”.

Whether the Fuller can boost micro-wind for the home remains to be seen. As Dale Vince of Ecotricity remarks, it’s “a huge challenge – nobody seems to have cracked it yet”.

Solar Aero is seeking tax-deductible grants to develop the technology further. Manufacture will be licensed to franchisees, and Fuller expects “many thousands” to be made. – Andrew Purvis

New life for Dutch dykes

Mon, 19 Jul 2010 14:26:30 +0100

Zeeland’s famous flood barriers set for an environmental double whammy

Holland was saved, so the story goes, by the boy who plugged a breach in a dyke with his finger. Odd to think then that, as sea levels rise, the Dutch are planning to do exactly the opposite and punch holes in the dams that protect their low-lying nation. But a solution to revive lost ecosystems and generate clean energy involves just that.

Zeeland’s immense Brouwersdam – built in response to the catastrophic floods of 1953 – has resulted in stagnant, algae-covered fresh water lakes that have been disastrous for native wildlife. Now, a plan to let sea water flow through the dam in a controlled manner could breathe new life into the lakes. And, by installing hydro turbines in the gaps, tidal energy will also be generated.

Spending to the tune of €1 billion a year from 2020 has been announced by the Delta Programme Commissioner, to ensure the safety and environmental wellbeing of the south-western region. The budget will be met by revenue generated as the turbines come on stream, with additional government investment to fund research and development.

According to Peter Vermey, Director of Delta Technology at sustainable design consultancy Grontmij, the plan could generate more than 200GWh, sufficient to meet the domestic needs of the region’s 60,000 families.

The project is also exploring innovations in renewable technology, such as 'blue energy', which takes advantage of the different saline levels of fresh and salt water (see 'Pulling power'). – Dixe Wills

Gasification system claims near 100% efficiency

Alex Johnson — Mon, 19 Jul 2010 14:10:41 +0100

New method uses a catalyst to maximise the output of clean fuel ingredients

A US research team is the first to claim an efficiency rate of nearly 100% for biomass gasification. Their modified system, developed with funding secured through Barack Obama’s greenish American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, uses a catalyst to maximise the output of clean fuel ingredients.

Conventional gasification uses extremely high temperatures to break down carbon-based molecules such as coal, wood, crop waste, rubbish and even plastic into carbon monoxide and hydrogen. This can then be converted into clean ‘mixed alcohol’ or synthetic fuels which burn with fewer emissions than conventional fuels. Until now, the process has been only around 50% efficient, with much of the carbon converted into CO2.

But the new system, developed by researchers at the University of Massachusetts-Amherst, pioneers a built-in catalyst made of radium or nickel to maximise the amount of carbon monoxide and hydrogen produced.

While sceptical of the 100% efficiency claim (“energy must be supplied from somewhere”), David Fulford, independent energy consultant and Ashden Awards adviser, finds the process “interesting”. However, “the story of the use of catalysts in gasification has not been a smooth one”, he warns – citing Swedish company TPS, which successfully demonstrated catalysts in the lab, only to fail at commercial scale.

But Amherst research leader Paul Dauenhauer is convinced that the new system will stand out. “We’ve tested this in the lab for over 40 hours and it has worked very well.” The team is now looking for $15-20 million in funding to run a much larger prototype. – Alex Johnson

Building trust in brands - without the labels

Anna Simpson — Fri, 16 Jul 2010 14:21:57 +0100

Jack Cunningham, Head of Climate Change and Environment at Sainsbury's, on the value of good, straightforward dialogue.

“Where is the wisdom we have lost in knowledge? Where is the knowledge we have lost in information?” TS Eliot’s words are sharply relevant in this age of endless ecolabels and ‘product advisories’. And they might just strike a chord with shoppers. These days, everything from a packet of tea to a toilet roll carries a whole litany of assurances about provenance, impact, recyclability and so on. And there could soon be more, if carbon and water labelling follow. But, says Jack Cunningham, Head of Climate Change and Environment at Sainsbury’s, there is evidence that customers are becoming weary of it all.

“It’s almost impossible to communicate the ‘embedded carbon impact’ of products to a customer. They might be aware of what carbon is, in the global sense, but understanding the impact of a particular product is another matter. The same goes for water. They do worry about animal welfare; they like to know where our meat comes from, how the animals have been treated, and so on. But regardless of the issue, they feel that they’re getting too much information. What they really want is to come into the store and buy some stuff in a hassle-free way, knowing that the brand is taking care of all these issues for them.”

When it comes to building that sort of confidence, food labelling can be counter-productive, Cunningham argues. Besides the logistics and cost involved in collating the data, labels put the ball firmly back in the customer’s court. And what’s worse – they get in the way of good, straightforward dialogue between the shopper and their store: “It’s all very well printing figures on packaging, but in fact, it’s our colleagues in store who can help consumers find what they came for. The great thing would be if every store colleague could articulate with confidence what we know about fish, say, or the impact of a product on communities.”

But point of sale is just one piece of the jigsaw, says Cunningham. “If we want to make informed decisions for our customers, we need to work with suppliers, so that we can influence the product before it lands on our shelves”.

And the same rules regarding open conversation apply.

“The most important thing for us is making sure that the supplier doesn’t go bust, environmentally or economically. So we don’t go to our suppliers saying, ‘We want our beef low carbon and for a low price: what can you do?’ We find we can have a much more mature conversation on costs if we develop a close working relationship with them – helping them save money by becoming more efficient, for example.”

It’s a lighter touch, but a more intelligent and human one than forcing suppliers to rise to regulations or targets. “Regulations stymie innovation,” says Cunningham. Which is why he’s looking for the same sort of openness and display of trust from Government.

“The trend is for Government to look to people like Sainsbury’s to help deliver on carbon reduction targets. But what I don’t want to see at this stage is Government forcing suppliers to do x and y without first giving retailers the opportunity to find solutions ourselves. What will work for one farmer in Devon might not work for another in Scotland. There are all sorts of variables: you can’t take a cookie cutter approach.”

Of course, Cunningham recognises, there are business opportunities for retailers who go beyond passing information back and forth from supplier to consumer, and get actively involved in creating change. Take energy. Sainsbury’s is working with the Energy Saving Trust (EST) and a large utility company to set up a one-stop shop, where people can go for advice on efficiency in the home, or help installing solar panels on their roof.

“At the moment, customers come to us because they trust the brand; they know what it stands for. They don’t necessarily think of it as somewhere they can solve a problem like their energy bill. But I think that, in the future, they will.”

Jack Cunningham was in conversation with Anna Simpson.

Sainsbury’s Supermarkets
is a Forum for the Future partner.

Google invests in clean energy

Mon, 12 Jul 2010 14:31:03 +0100

Two wind farms suggest a new business model for the search giant

A significant investment in clean energy by Google suggests it sees the renewable market as a key plank in its emerging business model. Earlier this year, the search giant spent $38.8 million in tax equity investments on two wind farms in North Dakota, following approval from the US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission in February to buy and sell energy on the open market.

Google’s philanthropic arm, Google.org, has previously made investments in start-ups developing innovative renewable energy technologies, such as eSolar and AltaRock (see 'Google's green ambitions take to the waves'). But its investment in NextEra– a significant renewable energy organisation operating in 26 US states, as well as Canada– indicates a change in motivation from corporate responsibility to income generation.

A spokesperson for Google.org said: “Wind is among the least expensive sources of renewable energy. Google benefits through returns earned on our capital, and NextEra benefits from more capital for additional projects.”

The wind farms, with a combined capacity of 170MW, will make use of the latest efficiency technologies, such as laser-directed blade angle adjustment (see 'Smart turbines can predict the wind'.)

Tim Stephure, Senior Analyst for Emerging Energy Research’s North America Wind Energy Advisory, believes the move should be considered a sign of things to come, rather than a major play per se. “Despite the figures involved, which sound large, this is a very humble start for Google, and a safe investment,” he says. “Once it gets more comfortable, we could see further investments down the line.” – Lynley Oram

Hot rock power predicted to rise 80% by 2015

Mon, 12 Jul 2010 11:32:36 +0100

Global geothermal capacity is set to soar, with developments in 70 countries
Indonesia recently made headlines by investing $5 billion to add 9GW to its geothermal capacity by 2025, meeting 5% of national energy needs by exploiting the heat from its many volcanoes. But a quick glance around the globe reveals that Indonesia is but one country among many who are playing the hot rock card.

According to the US Geothermal Energy Association (GEA), global growth has been steady, increasing by around 20% over the last five years. But, with 70 countries reporting projects currently in hand or under active consideration, the GEA is predicting an 80% rise by 2015.

Currently, the US leads with close to 4GW of installed capacity, but another 8GW are in the pipeline, with 188 new projects underway across 15 states. Another frontrunner is the Philippines, which has plans to increase its capacity to over 3GW within a decade.

At their heels are Mexico, Italy, El Salvador, Kenya and, perhaps most surprisingly, Papua New Guinea – one of the least developed countries in the world but second only to Germany in terms of geothermal growth.

As for future trends, Pete Rose, Geothermal Programme Coordinator at the Energy and Geoscience Institute of the University of Utah, anticipates work on the Pacific Ocean’s largely untapped Ring of Fire volcanoes. He is also excited about advances in drilling technology, to reach depths of over 5km, where temperatures of up to 600°C could significantly increase output.– Dixe Wills

Tokyo launches Asia’s first ETS

Tue, 06 Jul 2010 17:32:19 +0100

Can the city lead Japan towards a national cap and trade scheme?
In April, the capital’s Metropolitan Government launched a scheme to cut emissions by 25% by 2020, against a 2000 baseline. The new regulations affect the 1,400 business, factories and public buildings which, together, are responsible for 20% of the city’s emissions. Interim targets have also been set, under which factories are obliged to make cuts of 6% by 2014.

Tokyo has had a voluntary emissions reduction scheme since 2002, but city leaders now see mandatory targets as the only way to achieve significant cuts. Mirroring the EU’s Emission Trading System (ETS), organisations that struggle to meet their reduction targets will be allowed to buy emissions credits from those that manage to exceed theirs.

There are concerns that the limited geographical reach of Tokyo’s new regulations may, for some organisations, detract from more significant steps on a national and international level. But Koji Miyazawa, Director of Emissions Trading, Tokyo Government, has submitted a proposal for a national scheme which, he claims, would cover more than 100,000 installations, including power plants and heavy industry. He hopes to see the plan approved next year.

The step establishes Tokyo as a pioneer member of the International Carbon Action Partnership, which lobbies for a global cap and trade market. Other urban schemes include voluntary initiatives in Chicago, Montreal and the Chinese city of Tianjin, while California aims to introduce a state-wide scheme by 2012. –Julian Rollins

Augmented reality contact lenses: just a blink away?

Fri, 25 Jun 2010 10:59:17 +0100

Tiny semitransparent LEDs outstrip rose-tinted spectacles
Augmented reality vision could leave the snazziest Apps in the past. You just pop in a contact lens embedded with hundreds of tiny semitransparent LEDs, and the day begins. Colours are more vivid and resolution is immaculate. Every word spoken by your new Italian lover appears in translation before your eyes. Arrows pop up to point out the turning you need to take, and when you need the internet you just blink at the link. – Anna Simpson

This article is part of a series of Weak signals from the future. 'Weak signals' are ideas, trends and technologies that are as yet unrecognised by mainstream society. They might have a big impact or they might disappear. Monitoring them helps challenge assumptions about the future, navigate risk and seize new opportunities.

Track weak signals on Forum for the Future’s blog:www.forumforthefuture.org/futures/weak-signals

Forget organ donation, just print body parts

Fri, 25 Jun 2010 10:58:41 +0100

Normal0falsefalsefalseEN-GBX-NONEX-NONEMicrosoftInternetExplorer4/* Style Definitions */table.MsoNormalTable{mso-style-name:"Table Normal";mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;mso-style-noshow:yes;mso-style-priority:99;mso-style-qformat:yes;mso-style-parent:"";mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;mso-para-margin:0cm;mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt;mso-pagination:widow-orphan;font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin;mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;}Is a printed human vein the first step to synthetic organs?Forget endless waiting lists for life-saving organs, and incentives such as Israel’s first claim policy for those willing to donate. All you need is a blueprint and the right sort of ink to print your own. Just feed a few healthy cells into a computer, load the bio-ink cartridge and select the blueprint of your chosen organ. The 3D printer churns out layer after layer of cells, building your bespoke body part. With the first human vein recently printed, we could see residents in heavily polluted urban areas file claims for new lungs, or replacement limbs granted to crisis victims. – Anna SimpsonThis article is part of a series of Weak signals from the future. 'Weak signals' are ideas, trends and technologies that are as yet unrecognised by mainstream society. They might have a big impact or they might disappear. Monitoring them helps challenge assumptions about the future, navigate risk and seize new opportunities. Track weak signals on Forum for the Future’s blog:www.forumforthefuture.org/futures/weak-signals

Waterscraper: the answer to crowded cities?

Anna Simpson — Thu, 24 Jun 2010 15:56:04 +0100

A room with a submarine view could provide an alternative to tight living quarters. One up on the yellow submarine – how about a giant floating underwater ‘skyscraper’ as your new abode? Your pad offers a 360º view onto shoals of herring and the occasional circling whale. Giant turbines harness power from the waves, the pedestrian port on the surface is sheltered by huge photovoltaic sunshades. And there’s no need to sail to the shore for your weekly shop: a combination of aquaculture, hydroponics and rainwater harvesting keeps the complex self-sufficient. – Anna Simpson This article is part of a series of Weak signals from the future. 'Weak signals' are ideas, trends and technologies that are as yet unrecognised by mainstream society. They might have a big impact or they might disappear. Monitoring them helps challenge assumptions about the future, navigate risk and seize new opportunities. Track weak signals on Forum for the Future’s blog: www.forumforthefuture.org/futures/weak-signals