Adapt or die?

The latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change contains some tough warnings about impacts, vulnerabilities – and the need to adapt. IPCC expert Martin Parry  tells Green Futures what the world must expect – and do.

Our unequivocal message is that climate change is not a distant threat. For the first time, we can confidently detect the effect of man-made warming now on plants and animals around the world. That’s a big shift from the typical view of a decade ago – that climate change would affect our grandchildren but not us.

“There are vulnerable people and places in all the world’s major regions, including the most developed countries, with southern Europe and California among the most affected [see box below]. Low-lying coastal areas are expected to be in the front line, due both to sea-level rise and increasing storms, exacerbated by the growing pressure of human settlement. The poor, the elderly and the most vulnerable will be hardest hit.

“By mid-century, between a fifth and a third of plant and animal species will be on the path to extinction, unless rapid and major efforts in emissions reduction are agreed and implemented. Over the long term, mitigating climate change is essential; otherwise, temperature increases will ultimately exceed our ability to adapt.

“But reducing emissions will take time to agree and then implement. And then it will take still more time to slow the rate of warming. So adaptation may be the only effective weapon against climate impacts for the next three or four decades. Again, we need to work hard and quickly to put measures in place, especially by transferring knowledge and resources to developing regions, to give them the best possible hope of managing the change.”

Ecosystems expected to be most affected On the land: the tundra, boreal forest, mountains and mediterranean-type environments (eg southern Europe, California, South Africa’s Cape region). Along coasts: mangroves and salt marshes. In the oceans: coral reefs, and the polar sea ice biomes. Aspects of our livelihoods most at risk Our water resources, especially in mid-latitudes and the dry tropics, due to lower rainfall and higher evaporation. By mid-century, climate change is expected to leave hundreds of millions more people short of water. Our food production, especially in low-latitude regions, due to reduced water availability. Most current food shortage is already in these areas.

Our health, especially in areas of current poverty and poor provision of health services, due to a combination of poorer quality water, increased stress from high temperatures and increased incidence of disease. Most vulnerable places The Arctic, because of high rates of projected warming there, and the  sensitivity of its natural systems. Africa, especially north of the Sahara and in southern Africa, due to decreases in water availability and their relatively low capacity to adapt. Small islands, due to rising sea levels, more frequent storms and poorly developed infrastructure. Megadeltas in Asia, such as the Ganges-Brahmaputra in India and Bangladesh, and the Zhujiang (the Pearl river) in south China’s Guangdong province, due to large populations, sea-level rise, storm surges and river flooding.

Martin Parry is co-chair of the Second Working Group of the UN’s Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). ‘Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability’ can be found at www.ipcc-wg2.org

1 May 2007

Martin Parry