Six billion or bust?

According to the United Nations today, the 31st October is the day when the world population reached the seven billion mark. That is more than double the number of people in the early 1970s when, as part of a global Two Will Do campaign, I pledged to have no more than 2 children. It was a personal choice for my husband and me, but also one made after thinking about the world in which we wanted our children to grow up. A key part of that decision was the evidence then of the unsustainability of the soaring demands we humans were putting on the capacity of our planet to provide. Today, half of the seven billion citizens of the world are under the age of 25, 2 billion are under 18, yet we are still making promises to new generations that the environment can’t keep. This, to my mind, is the cruellest confidence trick of all time.

It is not, however, an impossible situation. Already the average number of children women have worldwide has dropped from 5 to 2.5, even though the momentum behind the numbers means we need to redouble our efforts. The UN has three projections for the global population in 2100:

High            16 billion
Medium       10 billion (we are roughly on track for this)
Low             6 billion

The sensitivity of the momentum means that the difference between the medium and the high projection is an average increase of half a child per woman. It is unlikely that a further doubling of the world’s population (the higher projection) or indeed even a rise of 3 billion (the medium projection) could happen without severe environmental consequences and/or social unrest. Around the world there is already a great loss of faith in governance systems and leadership to deal with the big challenges of our time. But the lower projection – 1 billion people fewer than there are now is achievable. This time the difference is a decrease of half a child per woman on average. A target that could be met simply by responding to the two hundred plus million couples around the world who say they want contraceptives to help plan their family but can’t get them, and by ensuring new generations get the information and contraceptives they need to plan their future families. There are countries with hugely successful programmes to learn from. Thailand, for example, has achieved lower birth rates without any sort of coercion, as has Iran, a country not often cited as an exemplar of world leadership. Designing for local cultures, securing access to information and materials over the long term, and making sure the children women do have not only survive but thrive are essential ingredients. Exactly as they would be in countries like the UK, where around 30% of all pregnancies are unplanned – a percentage no different from poor countries where so many women do not have much choice in the matter. A few years ago, a survey a Primary Care Trusts, found all their family planning provision wanting.

Above all we need to talk about the numbers of people and our demography as we plan for the future. Any hopes of ending environmental degradation, meeting the Millennium Development Goals, creating resilient communities and economies, and building trusted governance systems will be dashed unless there are fewer of us in the future than there are now. If we can’t do that by bringing down birth rates thoughtfully and carefully, then we shouldn’t be surprised if rising death rates do it for us. At all levels the crisis is a humanitarian one. The solutions are known, are cheap, and come with many collateral benefits.

 Click below to view Forum for the Future's 'Growing Pains' publication:

http://www.forumforthefuture.org/sites/default/files/project/downloads/populationweb.pdf