We’d like to respond to some comment on the web, which appears to misunderstand the purpose of our Megacities on the move scenarios.
When Forum for the Future develops scenarios they aren’t predictions or depictions of desirable futures that we wish to promote, and they don’t represent our vision of a sustainable future. They are pictures of different possible futures, designed to help people understand the major trends that are shaping our world. They aim to challenge, inspire and excite, so that people feel motivated to plan for a better, more sustainable future.
The scenarios in Megacities on the move form part of a toolkit, which aims to help governments, companies and civil society organisations understand the challenges of living and travelling in the cities of the future and start planning sustainable solutions. We recommend you watch more than one to get a sense of how the future may play out in very different ways. You can view them here:
www.forumforthefuture.org/projects/megacities-animations
They are based on desk research and interviews with more than 40 experts in different aspects of sustainable mobility from around the world, which identified key factors and trends that will shape the future of cities, including shortages of key resources, the strength of global institutions and whether alternative energy sources replace fossil fuels. For more information about the project download the report here:
http://www.forumforthefuture.org/sites/default/files/project/downloads/megacitiesfullreport.pdf
You may be interested in this recent article from the New York Times, which features the project and explores some of the issues it raises:
http://www.nytimes.com/cwire/2011/01/03/03climatewire-predicting-the-cli...
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Comments
A really interesting article...
The only time I saw a countryside in the cartoon was in virtual reality. I find it hard to believe that you all are experts in sustainability. Most people that are experts in TRUE sustainability vision a future with people working with and improving the land. The practices of permaculture, or biomimicry, organic and biodynamic growing actually rebuild the soil returning nutrients and minerals we need, save water, and contribute to biodiversity- just to name a few!! The replacement rate in many industrialized nations is below 2.1. That means the population is going down!!! It has been going down since 1972 in the US!!! Stop beLIEving the hype. Technology lends itself to dictatorship. When was the last time you were asked if they could add another layer of WIFI to your head??? If its okay to genetically combine two species and then release it in the wild??? I am much more concerned about the privatization of water, GMO's, war, industrial pollution, and the systematic starving of people who have the highest number of births mainly because they are systematically starved. Wake up. You need to spend more time with the earth if you want to know how to save it.
i think its the assumptions about people in here that are most insulting, not whether these idiotic scenarios could occur. it's the assumption that people don't want to be bothered with doing things like conserving, cultivating, creating and community. the sinister message is that we give ourselves over to large systems that control us (as opposed to the other way around) because at the end of the day we find that coexisting with strangers (community) is abhorrent and that we prefer to regulate interaction with people based on discrete parameters and multiple, regulated channels. it's an antisocial message of people, something that would only appeal to the sea of autistics that populate our academic fields... hahah the assumption is coexistence and quotidian existence of people in casual encounters is a human flaw, a flaw of society or a flaw of humanity and technology must regulate it in order to make everything work. it is the assumption that people can only be forced to share rather than to instinctively do so. watch the french documentary The Gleaners; the poor actively share in all their found-spoils... for no other reason than "if i hoard it, it will rot" and because if they share others will share alike. like antisocialism it is another assumption that is antithetical to human nature. it assumes that scarcity, overpopulation, rapidly breeding brown people are the cause of problems, rather than messed up systems of sovereignty that were vestiges of wars, colonialism and outright political strong arming through NGOs etc and charities. the answer still isn't large bureaucracy to reach goals no, it's about empowering individuals with leadership and management skills on the grassroots level and rediscovering what humans throughout history have observed as natural, almost spiritual truisms of organizational behavior. what motivates people, what is important to human relationships. the use of technology is only to speed up human heuristics, not to completely take control of it.
Regardless of the the respective content of the four scenarios, the comments - especially the "no-this-is-never-gonna-happen" type of comments - make very clear that you struck a chord.
If the future(s) depicted horrify so many of the readers they might become aware of the signals pinpointing towards this road into the future and of the options and actions to avoid those future developments.
Regarding the purpose of scenario thinking, contoversy and denial are good. Thus they should be taken as clear indicators that you have done a good job.
Maybe. But what I found sinister was that the cities presented as being a failure (i.e. the unplanned cities) were the ones where people were actually free to do what they want.
The planned cities, which are presented as really positive and a great thing, were - and forgive me for being blunt here - frankly sinister and fascistic in their tone and implications (carbon rations, calorie rations, etc).
I'm really not exaggerating when I say they really unsettled me. I thought it was just me, but others have posted them on Facebook with comments like "A sick mind thinks these things up", so I don't think it is just me.
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I hate all of the monetary system 'business' scenarios of the future.
The only future scenario I support (along with almost half a million other people and growing very fast ) is the Venus project Resource Based Economy idea that is advocated and supported by the Zeitgeist movement.
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