Retail futures 2022

Skyscrapers full of farms, cereal with added ginseng, clothes that double as medicines, and Kentish kiwis on the shelves... Persil sponsored schools, Tesco villages and the chance to pick your own chicken (and kill it too).

Is this what 2022 looks like? If so, where - and how - will we shop? Will there still be supermarkets? And what does that mean for today's major retailers?

Those are the questions at the heart of Retail Futures, our report produced with support from Tesco and Unilever. It draws on some intensive future-gazing work to sketch out four distinct scenarios for 15 years hence. Each depicts a world at once familiar, but with striking differences to our own -

'My Way' - a world of high consumption and sophisticated technology, characterised also by high levels of individual freedom. People are no longer so dependent on big business and government. In 'My Way', communities are doing it for themselves.

In 'Sell it to Me', hedonistic individuals pursue pleasure-seeking lifestyles, and expect 'Big Brother' (in the form of business and government) to meet their every desire - albeit in environment-friendly and ethical ways.

By contrast, in 'From Me to You', individuals trust only those they are close to. With the economy struggling, they depend on their communities for everything - from homegrown vegetables to peer-to-peer mortgages.

Life in 'I'm in Your Hands' is dominated by informatin. With disposable incomes dramatically reduced, and loyalty crds compulsory, discounted living in the supermarket village looks increasingly appealing.

None of these is intended to be a prediction - but they're not fanciful science fiction: each of them is rooted in research or pilots already well under way. The similarities between the scenarios - all exist in a world of climate change, resource depletion, global economic and demographic shifts for example - reflect what we can be more certain about over the next 15 years. The differences exploit current uncertainties about the future.

Together, they're designed to help major retailers n particular think and plan for a more sustainable future.

For more information, visit the project page where you can download the report. You might also enjoy the article in the Guardian.