Planning for uncertainty in a climate-changing world

If you were president of an African country with $1.2 billion dollars to spend and a host of challenges – poverty reduction, economic development, health and education – how would you spend it?

In his absorbing book ‘Poor Story’, Giles Bolton challenges the reader to do just this. As you answer the question in your head, Bolton gently probes your answers, unravelling your reasoning and demonstrating just how tough it is to make the ‘right’ decisions when you’re trying to act in the best interests of a country’s ‘development’.

Climate change makes it so much tougher – for governments, donors, aid workers, and businesses – to make the ‘right’ decisions for development, adding a huge dimension of uncertainty to our planet’s future. It’s not just the direct environmental impacts: climate change has the potential to transform the economic, political, social and psychological dimensions of the world we live in. New political alliances, shifting supply chain structures and resource-based conflict are just some of the changes we could see.

Amid such uncertainty, how can we ensure that development decisions taken today continue to deliver benefits in the future?

Our new report The future climate for development attempts to answer that question. It explores some of the radical changes we could see in the next 20 years as a result of climate change, and how low-income countries might respond. Supported by the UK’s Department for International Development, and informed by the insights of more than 100 development experts from around the world, it contains four scenarios – descriptions of different plausible futures – to provide a structured way of working through the uncertainties of a climate changing world.

The scenarios, which we’ve brought to life in four short animations, each highlight a different set of challenges and opportunities that low-income countries could face by the year 2030. ‘Reversal of Fortunes’ describes a world which is attempting to radically decarbonise its economy. Here, low-income countries that have followed the ‘traditional’ development pathway set by high-income countries get the rough end of the deal. They find that the new low-carbon global economy is an unforgiving one, uninterested in those trading partners unable to play the carbon-counting game. Fair?Certainly not, but possible? Surely – and therefore worth planning for.

Another scenario, ‘Age of Opportunity’, paints a more positive picture of 2030. Huge sums of development assistance have, in most countries, triggered a virtuous circle of investment, energy security, business opportunities and community empowerment. In ‘Coping Alone’ a world reeling from the shock of oil at $400 a barrel focuses on regional solutions. ‘The Greater Good’ finds climate change subsumed into a broader debate about resource use.

In these radically different worlds, a recurring theme emerges: the benefits of low-carbon development, be this investment in renewable energy, low-input agriculture or low-carbon cities. In an uncertain world, this is a consistently robust strategy.

Why? Low-carbon development sets up an economy that is fit for the future, shielded from the crushing oil price spikes of ‘Coping Alone’; it ensures a competitive position on a low-carbon world stage in ‘Reversal of Fortunes’; and it’s a vital component of the positive development cycle we see in ‘Age of Opportunity’. This is not a question of ‘limiting’ development by ‘limiting’ carbon emissions, but of focussing on the kind of smart strategies that deliver competitiveness, efficiency and healthier, wealthier communities. Climate change or no climate change, these are surely changes that every country wants to see.

Uncertainty is daunting, but it doesn’t have to be paralysing. By contemplating a variety of different possible futures, you can be better prepared for the unexpected. By testing – and modifying – your strategy in different scenarios, you can be sure that it will continue to deliver benefits. And by identifying initiatives – such as low-carbon development – that address climate change and development goals together, you can ensure that the short-term agenda is dominated by opportunity. All of which gives the best possible chance of each and every ‘development dollar’ being money well spent.

The full report, short films of the scenarios and supporting materials can be downloaded here.

For more information, please contact Jemima Jewell.